Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Forwarded via e-mail: An Israeli living across the "Green Line" considers the current situation

"All the votes aren't counted, yet. We should have this discussion in a year.

What the blogs all miss is that until now it was very easy - in fact the far less costly path - for Lebanon to cede control of the South to Hezbolla. Opposing Hezbolla would be very costly and letting them be cost nothing.

The math has changed.

It's true it's hard to find an obvious victory here, but I've been in Israel for 3 victories that got us nothing in the long run. This uncomfortable draw might actually be better for us than any of the victories were.

Or not. I'm not a prophet.

Another thing that happened is that after a morally ambiguous intifada or two, we went to war with an absolutely clear casus belli. We were attacked when we were sitting on a recognized international border and had offered no provocation of any kind.

From the way it looks here, world condemnation was unusually muted. Note that the UN is sending soldiers explicitly to control an enemy of Israel and only that - there's no symmetrical deployment on both sides of the border. The problem is clearly defined, and it's Hezbolla, not us.

There's not much chance the UN force will be good for much militarily, but if you can overlook the change in attitude about the struggle in which Israel is involved, you need new political glasses.I don't say it was good. Only the developments over the next year or two will tell us that, and I'm not a prophet. I just say it's too early to see the effects of this war, and the moaning and anger are not justified. Neither would a celebration be justified. A seed has been sown: it may bear fruit, weeds, or nothing.

Let's wait and see."


Blogger Elie said...

Wish I could be this optimistic! We have to hope and pray for the best.

Wed Aug 16, 12:53:00 PM 2006  
Blogger Shira Salamone said...

Elie, indeed, let's hope and pray for the best. I posted this because, after all the firebreathing that's been going on in the various blogs (including mine) over the past few weeks, I thought that a corrective was needed. I'm trying to calm down. I've always been a Peace Now, land-for-peace person. I don't know that I can go back to holding that opinion, but, at least, I want to moderate my thoughts, a bit. I'd rather come down somewhere in the middle, which better reflects my muddled state of mind.

Thu Aug 17, 07:18:00 AM 2006  

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